Between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, who has the most voting reserves?

Do we take the same ones and repeat the match? In 2022, as in 2017, France will have to choose between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen in the presidential election. Only this time the cards are reshuffled. All the polls give Macron the winner, but with a very different and small margin, ranging from 54% of the vote for Odoxa to 51% for Ifop. “The first element of uncertainty is that participation has not skyrocketed in recent days compared to 2017,” Ipsos’ Brice Teinturier told France Info on Monday. The second factor is that the curves are getting tighter and tighter. Two weeks ago there was almost a 10 point difference. Today we are at 3.5, but everything can still change. With one question in the background: who, the outgoing president or his opponent, has the most voting reserves?

Finally, on April 24, the three parts of the country go on vacation. Will the French vote? Will they issue a power of attorney? Will Macron’s voters, who traditionally have more means to go on vacation, be more tempted to skip that second round?

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“Nothing is played”

Many pundits share a worrying observation for Emmanuel Macron: Marine Le Pen holds a lot more than him. For the first time there were three candidates on the far right: Eric Zemmour (7.07% of the vote), Nicolas Dupont Aignan (2.06%) and Marine Le Pen (23.15%). If we add them up, these forces together make up 33.1% of the votes cast. Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at the opinion polling institute Ipsos, warns this Monday on France Info: “Nothing is decided”, knowing full well that “85% of Eric Zemmour’s voters say that they will vote for her”.

If the calls for a Macron bulletin were legion on Sunday evening, it is not certain that the outgoing president will be able to breathe. From his speech on the evening of the first round, he called for a “national unification”. In any case, Anne Hidalgo urges her voters to “vote against the extreme right of Marine Le Pen with Emmanuel Macron’s ballot. But only 1.7% of the French voted for them. Same clear statement from Yannick Jadot… and same limit. Left from left, Fabien Roussel (who received 2.3% of the vote) stands in the same line: “I demand that the far right be beaten to defeat them using the only ballot paper we have. ” .

On the other hand, Valérie Pécresse stated that she would “conscientiously vote for Emmanuel Macron to prevent Marine Le Pen’s seizure of power and the resulting chaos”. But she gave no instructions. And Christian Jacob, the president of LR, hinted Monday that “Marine Le Pen cannot speak” without saying more. Another problem for Macron: Eric Ciotti distanced himself from candidate LR, making sure his vote would not go to the outgoing president.

Eyes on LFI

For Emmanuel Macron, the duel therefore promises to be significantly more dangerous than in 2017. “He has already used his voting reserves,” analyzes Luc Rouban, political scientist at Cevipof. He totally vampirized Valérie Pécresse’s electorate, he has very few votes that will come from the left, very low in the first round. »

“Even if Macron’s probability of success is higher, nothing is certain,” confirms Luc Rouban, also a researcher at the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS). Two variables will play a crucial role. First, the ability to mobilize abstainers, 27% of the French. Their social profile is similar to that of the RN voters: modest, suspicious of the institutions… The second question is obviously the vote of the Mélenchon voters. With almost 22% of the votes cast, the LFI attracts everyone’s attention. On Sunday evening, Jean-Luc Mélenchon pirouetted at his headquarters, repeating at will “You must not vote for Marine Le Pen” without specifically citing Macron’s Bulletin.

According to a second round projection carried out by Ipsos-Sopra Steria for France TV, Radio France, France 24, RFI, Public Sénat, LCP and The Parisian, 34% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters would refer to Emmanuel Macron, 30% to Le Pen… and 36% would abstain. Another interesting extrapolation is that by research firm Elabe, which shows that 34% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters would prefer Le Pen… and 27% of Valérie Pécresse’s voters.

“The possible transfer of votes is an extrapolation, you have to be careful, be careful the political scientist. But we’re not at a few percentages that would relate to Le Pen. Especially since part of Mélenchon’s electorate can take a systematic anti-macronic position and a Le Pen victory with a clear left-right divide could favor a new union of the left. It’s like Bismarck declaring war on France in 1870 to reunite Germany… But that’s a dangerous calculation. »

What strategy for this second round?

In order to convince the abstainers, the hesitant, the disappointed, the two rivals must achieve an accurate result. Trips to frontier country for Macron from this Monday, debate on April 20 that Marine Le Pen cannot miss as in 2017…

There is no doubt that the RN candidate will be surfing on an anti-Macron speech. “She risks saying: ‘If it’s Macron, with the demonstrations there will be social chaos, a deficit in public services, a persistent social divide’, Luc Rouban continues. While Macron plays the European card, highlighting the dangerous war in Ukraine, the impossibility of distancing us from NATO and Europe. So there is a fundamental dilemma. Is it about the economic well-being of citizens or France’s place in the world? Marine Le Pen did not hesitate to say that the sanctions related to the war in Ukraine would cause companies to lose their outlets, gas prices would rise… It looks like the 1981 opposition, with a Valéry Giscard d ‘Estaing, who looked much international and a Mitterrand interested in French subjects. “With the same goal for the two candidates of 2022: to seduce as many voters as possible who did not support them in the first ballot.

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