Presidential poll 2022: Emmanuel Macron favorite for tighter round of 16 than 2017

These 11 days separating Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen from the second round of the presidential election promise to be intense. It is written that the game will not be the same as in 2017: the duel between the La République en Marche candidate and that of the National Rally will be close, even if the outgoing president remains in this phase of favorites. Our first daily survey between the two rounds, carried out by Ipsos-Sopra Steria with our partner Franceinfo, confirms this. Here’s what to remember.

A closer game than five years ago. Would Emmanuel have breathed new life into the former president in the first round, which allowed Emmanuel to record a higher score than in 2017 and give himself a nearly five-point lead over Marine Le Pen? It’s far too early to tell as the second round campaign and debate could prove crucial. Still, Emmanuel Macron is credited with 55% of voting intentions, versus 45% for his rival (with a margin of error of 3.2 points). This is the first time since March 30 that such a discrepancy has not been observed since the start of our daily survey on March 12.

Which voice messages? The score of Jean-Luc Mélenchon has escaped none of the two finalists, both trying to give his constituents guarantees in order to convince them to give them their vote. But those who have given a defiant voice in the first round seem to have most of those who refuse to make a choice between the two finalists: 37% believe that they Marine Le Pen block are by choosing Macron, and 18% would prefer to turn to the RN candidate. The rest are undecided.

59 percent of Yannick Jadot’s voters, who specifically called for Emmanuel Macron to be elected last Sunday, share their candidate’s call to vote. With voters by Valérie Pécresse, the trend is less obvious, since 47% is would turn them Emmanuel Macron, compared to 25% for Marine Le Pen. No surprise on the electorate by Éric Zemmour, which is expected to massively turn to Marine Le Pen ( 81% shift).

The undecided of the white voice. Abstentions and blank votes could quickly become one of the keys to this second round. If the two candidates can boast of benefiting from an electoral base very confident of their election, they can still hope to convince supporters of a blank vote or an abstention. Almost 40% of them say their choice is likely to change by April 24th.

No shortness of breath assumed when participating. It’s been twenty years since turnout was so low in the first round. 73.7% of the French registered on the electoral lists went to the polls last Sunday. In the second round, our daily trajectory seems to reflect a continuity in voting intentions, with an average of 73% of voters saying they would vote if the election took place this Wednesday. In the second round of the 2017 presidential election, 74.56% of registered voters went to the polls.

Methodology: Online survey conducted over the last three days on a sample of more than 1,500 people interviewed via the Internet. The presented results show the cumulation of the conducted interviews of the last three days. This barometer tracks voting intentions and opinions on a daily basis. quota method. Source: Ipsos-Sopra Steria for Le Parisien-Aujourd’hui en France and Franceinfo.

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