We’ve never been so close. If statistically all teams with 72 points in the entire history of Ligue 2 have been promoted to Ligue 1, mathematically Toulouse are not there yet. But a very precise scenario could formalize the men’s accession Philip Montanierwhile others might mean it unofficially given the purple goal difference.
Scenario 1: Toulouse wins in Sochaux, Auxerre and Paris don’t win. It is the only combination of results that would guide promotion: with 4 laps to go, the Toulouse would have a lead of more than 12 points over at least their 4 pursuers and would therefore be guaranteed to finish second at most. Probability percentage for this scenario: 12.67% or just over one in eight probabilities.
Scenario 2: Two combinations of results can lead to unofficial promotion and would put Montanier’s men just 12 points ahead of other clubs, but with such a goal difference that promotion cannot escape them. In fact, with a higher goal average of more than 30 units, Tèf would then have to lose the last 4 games by 4 goals each time, while at least one of their pursuers wins each game by 4 goals. If this is always possible, the probability is close to zero. These two combinations are: when Toulouse and Paris win and Auxerre does not win, or when Toulouse draws and neither Auxerre nor Paris take the 3 points. Percentage probability of this scenario: 17.24% or just under a 1 in 6 probability.
All other combinations (70.09%) would result in a delay before promotion, whether official or unofficial. When do you think the TFC will officially confirm their promotion to L1?
Which meeting do you think will formalize the rise of the TFC?
The 34th day:
Sochaux v TFC at 8pm (26%-26%-48%)
Auxerre – Dijon at 8pm (52%-26%-22%)
Paris FC – Caen at 20:00 (45%-27%-28%)
Ajaccio – Dunkirk at 20:00 (63%-30%-7%)
The current ranking (33 days):
1st TFC: 72 points (+48)
2. Ajaccio: 64 points (+17)
3. Auxerre: 61 points (+18)
4. Paris FC: 60 points (+16)
5. Sochaux: 60 points (+12)
(Statistical sources: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/ligue-2/)