With six days to go in the second round, Emmanuel Macron has a 12-point lead over Marine Le Pen

franceinfo would like to remind you that a survey is not a forecast but a snapshot of public opinion at a given moment. A survey is inevitably associated with a margin of error, also known as the “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the larger the margin of error. For more details, here’s everything you need to know to decode the polls.

It is the outgoing President who leads the race at the entrance to the final section the 2022 presidential election, according to our daily Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in Francepublished on Monday, 18. Emmanuel MacronThe re-election candidate is credited with 56% of voting intentions (+0.5 points) in the second ballot, versus 44% for Marine LePen (-0.5 points) his competitors from the National Rally (RN). The error rate is 3.2 points.

Six days after the second round and two days after the long-awaited debate between the two finalists of the ballot, The development of voice transmission clearly benefits Emmanuel Macron. Among those who voted for Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round, 46% (-5 points) still expressed no choice: this proportion of those who were undecided or in favor of abstaining and the blank vote rose to 56% at the end of last week. LThe candidate they are most likely to vote for in the second round is Emmanuel Macron (38%, +5 points), ahead of Marine Le Pen (16%, stable)..

Among the voters of Yannick Jadot (Europe Ecologie-Les Verts), the unspoken are 32%. 61% of voters in the first round say the candidate they are most likely to vote for in the second round is Emmanuel Macron (+2 points), versus 7% for Marine Le Pen (stable).

Among those who voted for Valérie Pécresse (Les Républicains) in the first round, 31% expressed no choice (+7 points compared to the previous measurement). 52% of them say that the candidate they are most likely to vote for in the second ballot is Emmanuel Macron and only 17% (-4 points) consider voting for Marine Le Pen.

As for Eric Zemmour’s (Reconquest!) voters, the vast majority still turns to Marine Le Pen: 73% (-3 points). But this proportion is steadily declining: on April 13, it was 81%. Conversely, 11% plan to vote for Emmanuel Macron. 16% have no choice. Either because they don’t want to answer, or because they abstained or chose an empty vote.

Six days before the second ballot 72% of French respondents are sure they will vote (range: between 70 and 74%). A figure slightly below the actual turnout during the second round of the 2017 presidential election (74.6%).

Of those who are certain to vote, 86% say they have made their choice and that it will be final, while 14% believe their vote is still subject to change. Emmanuel Macron’s voters are less and less in doubt: 92% (+5 points) say their election is final, only 8% recognize that they can still change their minds. For Marine Le Pen, 88% are convinced (-4 points) and 12% undecided. Among those who intend to travel on April 24 to vote blank or zero, the reflection is evidently still ongoing: only 53% are sure of their choice (-18 points) and 47% “among them they can change your mind.

Methodology. This barometer is produced for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France until the second ballot of the presidential elections and is based on the “rolling poll” methodology. Around 500 people on the electoral lists are interviewed every day. The results, published daily, report systematically on the last three samples interviewed to provide a reconstituted sample of approximately 1,500 individuals.

This Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France The study, published on April 18, is based on a total sample of 1,682 people on the electoral rolls, representing a representative sample of the French population aged 18 and over. The presented results show the cumulation of the conducted interviews of the last three days. The sample was interviewed via the Internet and formed using the quota method (gender, age, occupation of the respondent, category of agglomeration, region).

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