Mith the Russian offensive in the Donbass apparently underway, the Ukrainian war is entering a new, perhaps decisive, phase. After the defeat in kyiv, Putin cannot afford another setback. If he could no longer establish himself in the east of the country, his campaign would have failed for the time being. However, if he could expand the two breakaway areas and establish a permanent land connection with Crimea, then for the first time since the start of the war he would have something he could present as a victory, mostly to the crowd local.
However, a quick decision is unlikely. According to Western assessments, the Russian military learned from the mistakes made in the north; due to the terrain, a long field battle is now expected.
Ukraine has a lot of experience in the trench warfare that has been waged in the Donbass over the past eight years, but will no doubt continue to depend on Western military aid. The US government has already adapted to the new situation with the latest deliveries of weapons, including howitzers.
The Chancellor hesitates
Germany is struggling with this. The debate was dominated for days by loud calls for heavy guns, some of which came from people who were not known to be gun advocates before February 24. The Chancellor, on the other hand, who likes to boast about his leadership qualities, is hesitant.
In all sobriety, two aspects must be taken into consideration: on the one hand, the Bundeswehr, already poorly equipped, must remain operational; no one knows if the war could spread west after all. On the other hand, the NATO countries should act in the most coordinated way possible, if only to give Moscow no possibility of a split. Even the allies do not fulfill all of kyiv’s wishes. A good rule of thumb is: what America can offer, Germany can also offer.