It’s hard to start much better than Labor Day 5-0 (and in fact, I gave you a blessing on Alabama and USC too; 7-0 is hard to beat).
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Half a dozen games to play today: one we love, one we love, an underdog to consider, one to stay away from, a massive spread worth your time, and a deadly lock.
So, what do we have on tap for Week 2? Winners, sweetheart. Nothing but winners. I do the math so you don’t have to.
Not with 10′ tycoon and stolen money:
There was plenty to choose from here (most were in the ACC and SEC), and analytically a lot of smelly 50-50 this week. So, we’ll take the most obvious stay away game ever: Boston College +3 at Virginia Tech.
The Eagles withdrew from not attending the house and allowed Rutgers He kicked his butt from one end of Chestnut Hill to the other. We haven’t seen the slaughter of Bostonians with such soft invading power as that since Crispus Attocks. Meanwhile, the Virginia Tech and Special Teams offensive was a massive hit on the road, as Brent Pry’s era exited with a field goal loss to Old Dominion. second.
If you think you have an angle on any of these teams, you are lying to yourself.
one we like:
Alabama -20 vs Texas
Numbers like Alabama here, -24.39.
Despite playing La-Monroe at home, and scoring on the scoreboard, Longhorns’ offense didn’t exonerate itself well, analytically. Aside from confining only 383 yards to feast or starvation attack, they are 100 in overall efficiency, 59 in blasting drives, 64 in burst efficiency, and 95 in efficiency per game. (Alabama defense, btw, ranks 4th against lunging and passing, 3rd overall, and 11th in every game, creating chaos/negative game on 39% of all shots.) The Horns’ passing was somewhat better (ranked 32), which resulted in better engine efficiency overall (20), but you probably don’t want to have to lead the field against the Warhawks. Even more worrisome, OL gave up three bags, and Ewers hit 17% of its dropouts.
Offensively, for UA, the match is even better. The Horns fall into their 30s or 40s for every meaningful efficiency class, and 14 of the 19 ranks have succumbed through the air. (The kicks game was a looming disaster.) This Longhorn Defense can be obtained.
No need to beat the trends here, take Alabama by 24-26
One we like:
Auburn -23 vs San Jose State
The Spartans didn’t move very well, and they underperformed spread expectations by -6.8 PPG. Composite analysis impressed Auburn, but to a lesser extent with SJSU. With naive datasets, Auburn should win this by 26 or so. We’ll give them the benefit of the doubt with poor non-MWC performance for San Jose
Auburn covers something like 37-10. Tank is having a good day.
A massive spread, well worth your time
Ohio -43.5 to Arkansas
That’s a big set of points for a team that wasn’t very good at covering big numbers. But they’re up against the understaffed Red Wolves, who pulled off one of the fiercest sub-teams I’ve seen last year. Butch is trying to get better through the gate, but that will take a few years.
We’ll say OSU got their attack back on track, even without JSN. ASU’s rebuilding of OL, ill-fitting QB, and Wolves vs. P5 teams on the road don’t generate much optimism either: They’ve lost 51 PPG teams to Power 5 over the past five years.
It’s close, but we’ll trust the modeling. Arkansas state defense makes baby Jesus sad. OSU -46.71, 63-17ish
Michigan -50.5 to Hawaii
I spent two hours doing a manual analysis of Michigan -50.5 versus Hawaii, then wrote about 700 words about it. This spread literally broke accidental. And despite the half absurdity here, it probably is Too low by full landing.
Underdog with bite
Memphis -5.5 in the Navy
If you’re absolutely certain of one thing, it’s that the Navy absolutely owns the Memphis donkey in Annapolis. They are helpless before the running game, especially against the Navy.
“But the Navy lost to Delaware last week!” I hear you say. Yes, yes they did. This is FCS Team 10 in the Nation, Delaware: Blue Hens are not scrubs. A high-level FCS school is at least as good as a lower-level G5 team. And Memphis are all part of a group of 5 lower level teams…just without the Delaware defense. FFS, Mike Leach ran nearly 100 yards last week.
Let that perverted shit sink in. Mike. Leach.
Do you want more data points? The Memphis defense ranked 111th against the rush. 120 per pass, 128 per perturbation rate; 123 in ruins. They can’t play defense. a period. The Navy may not win, but that will soon be, and Memphis will be wounded over and over again on Earth.
Take the Navy officers home, I don’t rule out “discomfort”. I count on him half in fact. (compound UM -2.16)
To be honest, there were very few good candidates this week. And I’m afraid that’s the two teams I lean towards the most, because they’ve been a bit choppy. But, sometimes you just have to trust him.
Washington State +17 in Wisconsin
The best thing you can say about the Coogs’ effort against meh Idaho last week is that they didn’t lose to an FCS competitor. Otherwise, they were in a mess. Cougars would attack in LOS, fumble three times, couldn’t generate much humiliation, had a sad 16% spoilage rate, and only imposed 23% on no-go play or passive play defensively. against the FCS team. at home.
Then they come and drag that OL sorry over to Randall’s camp. This has been one of the biggest drivers of the season. It opened at UW-11 on 8/28. It’s now -17. And for good reason.
This might be bullshit if anyone other than Chryst training, but it’s probably the 23-24 tasty points that the compound would expect. Typical Wisconsin running/defensive porn game.
Don’t spoil this, Krist. Take UW -23.44; We’ll call it 7-30 Badgers
Will Auburn cover -23.5 at home versus San Jose State?
As everything about Bryan Harsin is weird, Auburn improbably wins by 23.5 points
0 votes total
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